The Power of Positive Certainty

Posted on November 3, 2008

Thumbs UPBy the time you read this, the election will be over. A huge question mark that’s been hanging over our heads for what seems like two years will be gone. Joe the Plumber will be back to business as usual, having a Busch beer at the local bar in Ohio. Saturday Night Live will be making fun of somebody other than a Vice Presidential candidate. The focus will be on the upcoming UVA/Tech game, where it belongs. One thing is for certain: things will be more certain.

If there’s one thing that makes the markets crazy, it’s uncertainty. Not knowing whether a company’s earnings will meet expectations makes it difficult to know whether to buy, sell or stay away. Wondering whether the Fed will raise rates may keep you from refinancing. But waiting out the last days of a lame duck President can feel like torture– especially when your 401k is tanking, your friends are losing their jobs, and your nation’s in an endless war.

Knowing who the President’s going to be for the next four years removes a lot of uncertainty from the picture. While fundamental issues like the recapitalization of the credit markets will not be solved by an election, some psychological issues will be. After all, the wild swings in the stock market are not purely logical. Mass psychology plays a major role in the fear and greed that move the markets. If you look at the recent drop in stock prices, there is simply no way that the fundamental value of American companies has dropped by more than $8 trillion in one year.

No matter who the President-elect may be as you read this, you have a choice. You can either spread the message of gloom and doom or you can encourage your colleagues and clients to peek around the corner and see the road ahead. It’s amazing how contagious either massage can be.

That’s not to say that we should strike up the band as the Titanic sinks. Blind optimism is not a strategy. Instead, spreading a positive outlook does work to combat uncertainty. Simply telling all of your clients or customers that you expect the economy to rebound soon and reassuring them that your company is building for the future can actually result in positive outcomes.

Mass uncertainty is like a virus. The media often seeds the virus by reporting negative economic news in a sensational fashion. Then, the word spreads of impending doom and causes everyone to reign in spending and sit on their hands. It’s a ripple effect that reaches down to individual households.

Taking a step back from the global economic crisis, the role uncertainty plays in individual communities and companies follows the same dynamic. In these smaller settings, negative news travels like wildfire. Very quickly, morale drops, compounding the effect of the initial problem. This compounding effect can be completely avoided by injecting some level of certainty by managing the message.

Our region shares a tremendous amount of potential that is waiting to be realized. Yet, in conversations on the street and online, you consistently hear discontent over the lack of opportunity. Part of this negativity comes from a shared uncertainty about the future direction of the region.

Getting everyone who lives here to agree on a common direction may never happen. However, if a common direction is clearly defined and effectively communicated to the citizenry, a framework develops that guides progress. When the direction is nebulous to the public, it’s as if we are all involved in a game with no rules and no clear way to win.

So, as we face down the next four years with the certainty of a new President, let’s urge our local leaders find common positive ground and encourage each other to pursue a common destiny of progress. Otherwise, we’ll remain mired in the uncertainty that holds us all back and keeps us from realizing our collective potential. With 2009 right around the corner, make it a point to share a positive outlook and find new ways to win in this new economy.

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